Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

Serie B 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-07

Cesena

Catanzaro 44% 2.25 25% 3.93 30% 3.33 56%xG 2.9 59%1.70 11-07

Juve Stabia

Arezzo 55% 1.81 25% 4.08 20% 4.97 51%xG 2.7 52%1.92 11-07

Padova

Empoli 42% 2.40 27% 3.73 32% 3.17 51%xG 2.7 55%1.81 11-07

Pisa

Sudtirol 65% 1.54 21% 4.73 14% 7.18 55%xG 2.9 50%2.01 11-07

Mantova

Verona 39% 2.54 26% 3.80 34% 2.92 54%xG 2.8 58%1.73 11-07

Benevento

Avellino 42% 2.40 27% 3.64 31% 3.25 48%xG 2.6 53%1.89 11-08

Virtus Entella

Modena 37% 2.73 28% 3.56 35% 2.84 46%xG 2.5 52%1.92 11-08

Carrarese

Sampdoria 43% 2.31 28% 3.57 29% 3.49 45%xG 2.5 50%1.98 11-08

Vicenza

Cremonese 30% 3.36 26% 3.79 44% 2.28 52%xG 2.8 56%1.79 11-20

Verona

Cesena 64% 1.55 21% 4.75 15% 6.89 56%xG 2.9 52%1.94 11-21

Ascoli

Vicenza 58% 1.72 24% 4.18 18% 5.54 51%xG 2.7 50%1.98 11-21

Carrarese

Virtus Entella 41% 2.46 28% 3.55 31% 3.20 45%xG 2.5 51%1.96 11-21

Modena

Juve Stabia 50% 1.99 26% 3.81 24% 4.25 48%xG 2.6 51%1.95 11-21

Sampdoria

Benevento 43% 2.35 28% 3.56 29% 3.40 45%xG 2.5 51%1.97 11-21

Sudtirol

Cremonese 30% 3.32 28% 3.59 42% 2.38 46%xG 2.5 52%1.94 11-21

Catanzaro

Palermo 27% 3.75 24% 4.19 49% 2.02 61%xG 3.1 62%1.62 11-21

Empoli

Pisa 27% 3.71 26% 3.92 48% 2.10 54%xG 2.8 57%1.76 11-22

Avellino

Mantova 40% 2.48 26% 3.79 33% 3.00 53%xG 2.8 57%1.75 11-22

Arezzo

Padova 47% 2.14 26% 3.84 27% 3.67 52%xG 2.8 55%1.81 11-24

Juve Stabia

Catanzaro 54% 1.86 24% 4.12 22% 4.54 55%xG 2.9 55%1.80 11-24

Benevento

Empoli 51% 1.96 26% 3.90 23% 4.27 51%xG 2.7 53%1.89 11-24

Cesena

Ascoli 33% 3.02 28% 3.55 39% 2.58 46%xG 2.5 52%1.94 11-24

Palermo

Sudtirol 67% 1.48 20% 5.05 13% 7.81 58%xG 3.0 51%1.96 11-24

Vicenza

Carrarese 37% 2.68 27% 3.67 35% 2.83 50%xG 2.7 55%1.83 11-24

Virtus Entella

Verona 33% 2.99 28% 3.60 39% 2.58 47%xG 2.6 53%1.89 11-25

Cremonese

Avellino 49% 2.05 26% 3.84 25% 3.99 50%xG 2.7 53%1.87 11-25

Mantova

Arezzo 61% 1.63 22% 4.63 17% 5.87 59%xG 3.1 56%1.80 11-25

Padova

Sampdoria 36% 2.78 28% 3.57 36% 2.78 47%xG 2.5 52%1.91 11-25

Pisa

Modena 48% 2.08 26% 3.89 26% 3.83 52%xG 2.8 55%1.81 11-28

Ascoli

Virtus Entella 46% 2.15 28% 3.58 26% 3.90 44%xG 2.4 49%2.06 11-28

Carrarese

Juve Stabia 39% 2.54 28% 3.54 32% 3.09 45%xG 2.5 51%1.95 11-28

Empoli

Verona 26% 3.78 26% 3.86 48% 2.10 52%xG 2.8 55%1.81 11-28

Vicenza

Cesena 42% 2.35 26% 3.79 31% 3.21 52%xG 2.8 56%1.77 11-28

Palermo

Benevento 60% 1.67 22% 4.47 18% 5.68 57%xG 3.0 54%1.84

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	Palermo	Serie B	1476	162
2	Modena	Serie B	1401	162
3	Cremonese	Serie B	1399	200
4	Verona	Serie B	1392	200
5	Ascoli	Serie B	1382	124
6	Pisa	Serie B	1380	200
7	Mantova	Serie B	1366	86
8	Juve Stabia	Serie B	1360	86
9	Avellino	Serie B	1357	48
10	Benevento	Serie B	1333	86
11	Catanzaro	Serie B	1333	124
12	Padova	Serie B	1333	48
13	Sudtirol	Serie B	1327	162
14	Carrarese	Serie B	1322	86
15	Virtus Entella	Serie B	1320	48
16	Spezia	Serie B	1320	190
17	Cesena	Serie B	1318	86
18	Arezzo	Serie B	1315	10
19	Pescara	Serie B	1313	38
20	Empoli	Serie B	1312	200
21	Bari	Serie B	1305	152
22	Sampdoria	Serie B	1303	200
23	Vicenza	Serie B	1299	48
24	Reggiana	Serie B	1278	114

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

Serie B 2026-11-28

Palermo Rated 1476

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 1.97 – 0.98

Benevento Rated 1333

Palermo Model pick 60% Fair odds 1.67

Draw 22% Fair odds 4.47

Benevento 18% Fair odds 5.68

Add to slip: Palermo Draw Benevento

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Palermo	Draw	Benevento
Goals model	60%	22%	18%
Elo model	65%	23%	12%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Favours Palermo

+39 pts

Palermo are rated 143 points above Benevento (1476 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
Home advantage Favours Palermo

+15 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Palermo's chance of winning and takes the same from Benevento's.
Attack against defence Favours Palermo

Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Palermo score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in Serie B); Benevento concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
Last 5 matches Neutral

Palermo WDWWW, gained 26 rating points; Benevento LDWDW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.

Rating, last 12 months

PalermoBenevento

2025-11-081298–14762026-11-01

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.594%1.06

Under 0.56%17.45

Over 1.580%1.25

Under 1.520%4.97

Over 2.557%1.77

Under 2.543%2.30

Over 3.534%2.92

Under 3.566%1.52

Over 4.518%5.66

Under 4.582%1.21

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes54%1.84

Both score: no46%2.19

Palermo clean sheet38%2.66

Benevento clean sheet14%7.20

Most likely scores

correct score

1-1 11%9.44
2-0 10%9.83
2-1 10%10.05
1-0 10%10.20
3-0 7%14.95
3-1 7%15.27
0-0 6%17.45
1-2 5%20.28

Every score

Palermo goals ↓ Benevento goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	6	5	2	1
1	10	11	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	7	7	3	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

Half-time result

xG 0.78 – 0.46

Palermo ahead 39% Fair odds 2.54

Level 41% Fair odds 2.42

Benevento ahead 19% Fair odds 5.18

First-half goals

Over 0.570%1.42

Under 0.530%3.39

Over 1.536%2.81

Under 1.564%1.55

Over 2.513%7.77

Under 2.587%1.15

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Palermo	Draw	Benevento
Palermo	35%2.88	4%27.55	1%—
Level	22%4.57	13%7.79	7%14.99
Benevento	4%25.32	5%20.04	10%9.66

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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