Football
Shimizu S-Pulse
Verdy
40%
2.51
29%
3.42
31%
3.23
42%xG 2.3
48%2.08
11-07
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto
39%
2.57
27%
3.72
34%
2.92
51%xG 2.7
56%1.79
11-07
Yokohama F. Marinos
Okayama
68%
1.47
20%
5.10
12%
8.20
57%xG 3.0
50%2.01
11-07
Avispa Fukuoka
V-Varen Nagasaki
32%
3.16
28%
3.53
40%
2.50
45%xG 2.5
51%1.97
11-07
FC Tokyo
Kashima Antlers
61%
1.63
22%
4.63
17%
5.89
59%xG 3.0
55%1.80
11-07
Kashiwa Reysol
Kawasaki Frontale
68%
1.48
17%
5.81
15%
6.63
75%xG 3.9
66%1.51
11-08
Machida
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
42%
2.40
28%
3.62
31%
3.25
47%xG 2.6
53%1.90
11-08
Vissel Kobe
Urawa Reds
62%
1.60
23%
4.43
15%
6.66
51%xG 2.7
48%2.07
11-08
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
55%
1.81
23%
4.33
22%
4.61
59%xG 3.1
59%1.71
11-08
Chiba
Mito
56%
1.79
23%
4.35
21%
4.74
59%xG 3.1
58%1.72
11-20
Kashima Antlers
Shimizu S-Pulse
77%
1.30
15%
6.64
8%
12.53
65%xG 3.3
49%2.04
11-20
Kashiwa Reysol
Chiba
75%
1.33
15%
6.46
9%
10.70
68%xG 3.5
54%1.86
11-20
Vissel Kobe
Mito
74%
1.34
17%
5.92
9%
11.59
59%xG 3.1
46%2.19
11-21
Kyoto
Urawa Reds
50%
1.99
25%
4.02
25%
4.00
55%xG 2.9
57%1.76
11-21
Machida
V-Varen Nagasaki
73%
1.38
17%
5.75
10%
9.98
61%xG 3.2
50%2.02
11-21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Yokohama F. Marinos
59%
1.70
23%
4.32
18%
5.56
54%xG 2.8
53%1.90
11-21
Verdy
Nagoya Grampus
34%
2.98
29%
3.40
37%
2.70
41%xG 2.3
48%2.08
11-21
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
12%
8.38
18%
5.48
70%
1.43
63%xG 3.2
53%1.87
11-21
Kawasaki Frontale
Avispa Fukuoka
69%
1.44
18%
5.55
13%
7.96
65%xG 3.4
56%1.78
11-21
Gamba Osaka
Okayama
54%
1.86
25%
4.05
22%
4.63
53%xG 2.8
54%1.86
11-25
Avispa Fukuoka
Yokohama F. Marinos
19%
5.27
25%
3.96
56%
1.79
47%xG 2.6
48%2.07
11-25
Okayama
Shimizu S-Pulse
51%
1.96
26%
3.84
23%
4.36
49%xG 2.6
51%1.95
11-25
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
47%
2.11
26%
3.78
26%
3.81
50%xG 2.7
53%1.87
11-25
Chiba
Nagoya Grampus
43%
2.32
26%
3.81
31%
3.26
53%xG 2.8
57%1.76
11-25
Mito
Verdy
43%
2.34
28%
3.57
29%
3.41
45%xG 2.5
51%1.97
11-25
V-Varen Nagasaki
Kawasaki Frontale
38%
2.65
23%
4.35
39%
2.55
69%xG 3.5
69%1.44
11-25
Urawa Reds
Cerezo Osaka
54%
1.85
24%
4.23
22%
4.46
58%xG 3.0
58%1.73
11-28
Kyoto
Cerezo Osaka
59%
1.69
22%
4.55
19%
5.30
60%xG 3.1
58%1.73
11-28
Shimizu S-Pulse
Urawa Reds
30%
3.30
27%
3.73
43%
2.33
50%xG 2.7
55%1.83
11-28
Kashima Antlers
Okayama
70%
1.42
18%
5.46
11%
8.91
60%xG 3.1
51%1.97
11-28
Vissel Kobe
Chiba
66%
1.51
21%
4.86
13%
7.67
55%xG 2.9
49%2.03
11-28
Kashiwa Reysol
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
40%
2.47
26%
3.78
33%
3.02
53%xG 2.8
57%1.76
Nothing matches this filter. Pick another day or clear the search.
Premier League
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
24 | 53% | 98% | – |
| 2 |  Man City |
21 | 32% | 95% | – |
| 3 |  Brighton |
19 | 12% | 85% | – |
| 4 |  Bournemouth |
12 | 1% | 40% | – |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
15 | 1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Aston Villa |
12 | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
16 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brentford |
14 | – | 5% | 1% |
| 9 |  Tottenham |
12 | – | 5% | 2% |
| 10 |  Everton |
13 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 11 |  Leeds |
11 | – | 2% | 4% |
| 12 |  Fulham |
9 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 13 |  Man United |
7 | – | <1% | 12% |
| 14 |  Nott'm Forest |
6 | – | <1% | 14% |
| 15 |  Newcastle |
11 | – | – | 22% |
| 16 |  Ipswich |
11 | – | <1% | 26% |
| 17 |  Coventry |
9 | – | – | 42% |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace |
7 | – | – | 49% |
| 19 |  Hull |
11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
5 | – | – | 65% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Championship
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough |
28 | 40% | 63% | – |
| 2 |  Southampton |
28 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 3 |  West Ham |
23 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Birmingham |
26 | 10% | 26% | – |
| 5 |  Wolves |
27 | 4% | 11% | – |
| 6 |  Swansea |
26 | 2% | 6% | – |
| 7 |  West Brom |
25 | <1% | 4% | – |
| 8 |  Norwich |
18 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 9 |  QPR |
21 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 10 |  Portsmouth |
22 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 11 |  Stoke |
26 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 12 |  Millwall |
18 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United |
22 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Wrexham |
17 | – | – | <1% |
| 15 |  Bristol City |
18 | – | – | 1% |
| 16 |  Cardiff |
15 | – | – | 2% |
| 17 |  Blackburn |
18 | – | – | 3% |
| 18 |  Bolton |
17 | – | – | 5% |
| 19 |  Burnley |
10 | – | – | 15% |
| 20 |  Lincoln |
15 | – | – | 19% |
| 21 |  Watford |
14 | – | – | 24% |
| 22 |  Charlton |
14 | – | – | 52% |
| 23 |  Derby |
7 | – | – | 81% |
| 24 |  Preston |
5 | – | – | 97% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
La Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona |
30 | 89% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
27 | 11% | >99% | – |
| 3 |  Ath Madrid |
28 | <1% | 97% | – |
| 4 |  Betis |
23 | – | 57% | – |
| 5 |  Sociedad |
19 | – | 30% | – |
| 6 |  Ath Bilbao |
15 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 7 |  Sevilla |
17 | – | 5% | <1% |
| 8 |  Vallecano |
12 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 9 |  Villarreal |
12 | – | <1% | 4% |
| 10 |  Alaves |
12 | – | <1% | 5% |
| 11 |  Elche |
10 | – | <1% | 6% |
| 12 |  Levante |
10 | – | <1% | 7% |
| 13 |  La Coruna |
14 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 14 |  Celta |
12 | – | – | 13% |
| 15 |  Espanol |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 16 |  Valencia |
9 | – | – | 28% |
| 17 |  Osasuna |
11 | – | – | 30% |
| 18 |  Getafe |
12 | – | – | 36% |
| 19 | Santander | 11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Malaga |
5 | – | – | 86% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Bundesliga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
18 | 98% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
18 | 2% | 87% | – |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig |
15 | <1% | 55% | – |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
16 | <1% | 50% | – |
| 5 |  Leverkusen |
13 | <1% | 48% | – |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
15 | – | 22% | – |
| 7 |  Stuttgart |
9 | – | 22% | – |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim |
9 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
9 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 10 |  Ein Frankfurt |
11 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 11 |  Mainz |
10 | – | 2% | 2% |
| 12 |  Elversberg |
13 | – | 1% | 3% |
| 13 |  FC Koln |
9 | – | <1% | 9% |
| 14 |  Hamburg |
9 | – | – | 22% |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
9 | – | – | 26% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
7 | – | – | 27% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach |
4 | – | – | 53% |
| 18 |  Schalke 04 |
6 | – | – | 54% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Serie A
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como |
23 | 71% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Inter |
25 | 21% | 97% | – |
| 3 |  Roma |
24 | 6% | 87% | – |
| 4 |  Lazio |
28 | 2% | 63% | – |
| 5 |  Juventus |
17 | <1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Milan |
21 | – | 7% | – |
| 7 |  Napoli |
14 | – | 5% | – |
| 8 |  Frosinone |
20 | – | 4% | – |
| 9 |  Bologna |
14 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Cagliari |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 11 |  Torino |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Genoa |
13 | – | – | 6% |
| 13 |  Atalanta |
11 | – | – | 10% |
| 14 |  Fiorentina |
8 | – | – | 11% |
| 15 |  Parma |
8 | – | – | 29% |
| 16 |  Lecce |
9 | – | – | 36% |
| 17 |  Sassuolo |
8 | – | – | 41% |
| 18 |  Monza |
7 | – | – | 42% |
| 19 |  Udinese |
5 | – | – | 44% |
| 20 |  Venezia |
3 | – | – | 73% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Ligue 1
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris SG |
20 | >99% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Paris FC |
17 | – | 48% | – |
| 3 |  Monaco |
15 | – | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Lyon |
17 | – | 36% | – |
| 5 |  Lille |
18 | – | 22% | – |
| 6 |  Rennes |
16 | – | 20% | – |
| 7 |  Marseille |
15 | – | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brest |
12 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
10 | – | 4% | <1% |
| 10 |  Toulouse |
10 | – | 3% | <1% |
| 11 |  Nice |
14 | – | 2% | 1% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
12 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 13 |  Lens |
13 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
10 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Troyes |
8 | – | – | 34% |
| 16 |  Le Havre |
2 | – | – | 39% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
7 | – | – | 43% |
| 18 |  Angers |
8 | – | – | 62% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Eredivisie
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Twente |
23 | 41% | 67% | – |
| 2 |  Ajax |
24 | 30% | 58% | – |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven |
23 | 17% | 39% | – |
| 4 |  Feyenoord |
25 | 10% | 27% | – |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar |
20 | 2% | 8% | – |
| 6 |  Heerenveen |
18 | – | <1% | – |
| 7 |  For Sittard |
19 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Groningen |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 9 |  Cambuur |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Nijmegen |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
14 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Utrecht |
12 | – | – | 5% |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
12 | – | – | 8% |
| 14 |  Telstar |
9 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Den Haag |
6 | – | – | 18% |
| 16 |  Zwolle |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 17 |  Excelsior |
11 | – | – | 32% |
| 18 |  Willem II |
2 | – | – | >99% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
30 | 49% | 91% | – |
| 2 |  Benfica |
25 | 47% | 90% | – |
| 3 |  Sp Lisbon |
21 | 4% | 17% | – |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
21 | – | <1% | – |
| 5 |  Arouca |
20 | – | <1% | – |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
20 | – | – | – |
| 7 |  Sp Braga |
14 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente |
15 | – | – | – |
| 9 |  Alverca |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Famalicao |
10 | – | – | – |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
14 | – | – | <1% |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | – | – | 3% |
| 13 |  Maritimo |
8 | – | – | 15% |
| 14 |  Nacional |
7 | – | – | 18% |
| 15 |  Rio Ave |
7 | – | – | 25% |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
7 | – | – | 29% |
| 17 |  Estoril |
2 | – | – | 31% |
| 18 |  Vitoria |
9 | – | – | 79% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
| # | Team | League | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
J1 League | |
| 2 | Machida |
J1 League | |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol |
J1 League | |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers |
J1 League | |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe |
J1 League | |
| 6 | FC Tokyo |
J1 League | |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos |
J1 League | |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale |
J1 League | |
| 9 | Kyoto |
J1 League | |
| 10 | Urawa Reds |
J1 League | |
| 11 | Gamba Osaka |
J1 League | |
| 12 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
J1 League | |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka |
J1 League | |
| 14 | Nagoya Grampus |
J1 League | |
| 15 | Chiba |
J1 League | |
| 16 | Mito |
J1 League | |
| 17 | Okayama |
J1 League | |
| 18 | Verdy |
J1 League | |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka |
J1 League | |
| 20 | Shimizu S-Pulse |
J1 League | |
| 21 | Yokohama FC | J1 League | |
| 22 | Shonan Bellmare | J1 League | |
| 23 | Albirex Niigata | J1 League |
Who wins
| Called right | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 1.0211 | 0.612 |
| Elo model | 49% | 1.0233 | 0.6135 |
| Bookmakers, early odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.9976 | 0.5961 |
| Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.999 | 0.5971 |
When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.
Goals markets
| Market | Goals model | Naive guess | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.676 |
| Both teams score | 0.686 | 0.691 | — |
| Half-time result | 1.053 | 1.081 | — |
| First-half goal | 0.601 | 0.605 | — |
| Half-time / full-time | 1.907 | 1.962 | — |
"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.
Compare any two teams
Prediction, goals markets, form, rating trend and past meetings.