Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

Eredivisie 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-07

For Sittard

Telstar 52% 1.94 23% 4.30 25% 3.99 62%xG 3.2 62%1.61 11-07

Den Haag

Sparta Rotterdam 48% 2.08 24% 4.25 28% 3.53 63%xG 3.2 64%1.56 11-07

Excelsior

Go Ahead Eagles 37% 2.67 24% 4.22 39% 2.57 66%xG 3.4 67%1.49 11-08

Heerenveen

Feyenoord 40% 2.53 24% 4.18 36% 2.74 64%xG 3.3 66%1.52 11-08

Twente

Ajax 50% 2.01 23% 4.35 27% 3.68 65%xG 3.3 65%1.54 11-08

AZ Alkmaar

Groningen 58% 1.71 22% 4.62 20% 4.99 63%xG 3.3 61%1.64 11-08

Cambuur

PSV Eindhoven 27% 3.71 22% 4.51 51% 1.97 68%xG 3.5 68%1.48 11-08

Utrecht

Nijmegen 36% 2.77 23% 4.29 41% 2.46 67%xG 3.5 68%1.47 11-21

Nijmegen

PSV Eindhoven 33% 3.06 22% 4.45 45% 2.23 70%xG 3.6 70%1.43 11-21

Utrecht

Cambuur 42% 2.39 24% 4.21 34% 2.91 65%xG 3.3 66%1.51 11-21

Feyenoord

Excelsior 79% 1.27 13% 7.58 8% 12.18 75%xG 3.9 58%1.73 11-21

Groningen

Heerenveen 42% 2.36 24% 4.13 33% 3.00 62%xG 3.2 64%1.55 11-21

Telstar

Zwolle 52% 1.91 23% 4.38 25% 4.04 64%xG 3.3 63%1.58 11-22

Twente

Willem II 92% 1.09 6% 17.33 2% 48.54 83%xG 4.5 44%2.29 11-22

Ajax

Den Haag 78% 1.29 14% 7.32 9% 11.64 74%xG 3.9 58%1.73 11-22

Sparta Rotterdam

AZ Alkmaar 26% 3.91 23% 4.26 51% 1.96 61%xG 3.2 62%1.62 11-22

Go Ahead Eagles

For Sittard 43% 2.31 24% 4.18 33% 3.06 64%xG 3.3 65%1.53 11-27

Groningen

Willem II 79% 1.27 14% 7.37 8% 12.74 72%xG 3.7 54%1.84 11-28

Excelsior

Telstar 38% 2.60 24% 4.11 37% 2.69 63%xG 3.2 65%1.55 11-28

PSV Eindhoven

Go Ahead Eagles 76% 1.31 14% 7.25 10% 10.08 78%xG 4.1 63%1.58 11-28

Cambuur

Sparta Rotterdam 54% 1.84 22% 4.53 24% 4.26 66%xG 3.4 64%1.56

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie	1667	235
2	Twente	Eredivisie	1619	194
3	Ajax	Eredivisie	1617	236
4	Feyenoord	Eredivisie	1602	236
5	AZ Alkmaar	Eredivisie	1545	235
6	Heerenveen	Eredivisie	1528	181
7	Nijmegen	Eredivisie	1521	185
8	Groningen	Eredivisie	1501	147
9	Utrecht	Eredivisie	1492	189
10	For Sittard	Eredivisie	1473	181
11	Telstar	Eredivisie	1458	45
12	Go Ahead Eagles	Eredivisie	1458	189
13	Den Haag	Eredivisie	1453	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	Eredivisie	1448	181
15	Zwolle	Eredivisie	1431	147
16	Excelsior	Eredivisie	1431	113
17	Cambuur	Eredivisie	1424	79
18	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	1403	68
19	Volendam	Eredivisie	1380	102
20	Willem II	Eredivisie	1334	79
21	Heracles	Eredivisie	1328	136

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

Eredivisie 2026-11-08

Twente Rated 1619

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 1.95 – 1.40

Ajax Rated 1617

Twente Model pick 50% Fair odds 2.01Bookmakers 42%

Draw 23% Fair odds 4.35Bookmakers 24%

Ajax 27% Fair odds 3.68Bookmakers 34%

Add to slip: Twente Draw Ajax

The model and the bookmakers disagree. Twente: 50% here, 42% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Twente	Draw	Ajax
Goals model	50%	23%	27%
Elo model	46%	27%	27%
Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed)	42%	24%	34%
Best price on offer	2.30	3.90	2.90

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Neutral

+0 pts

Twente and Ajax are rated almost level (1619 and 1617).
Home advantage Favours Twente

+18 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Twente's chance of winning and takes the same from Ajax's.
Attack against defence Favours Twente

Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Twente score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Eredivisie); Ajax concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
Last 5 matches Favours Ajax

Twente WWWWL, gained 30 rating points; Ajax WWWWW, gained 50 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Bookmakers' view Favours Ajax

Bookmakers rate Ajax higher than the model does: Twente 42% against the model's 50%, Ajax 34% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Past meetings Neutral

Twente won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

TwenteAjax

2025-11-071524–16192026-11-05

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.596%1.04

Under 0.54%24.94

Over 1.585%1.17

Under 1.515%6.73

Over 2.565%1.54

Under 2.535%2.85

Over 3.543%2.33

Under 3.557%1.75

Over 4.525%4.08

Under 4.575%1.33

Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes65%1.54

Both score: no35%2.86

Twente clean sheet25%4.05

Ajax clean sheet14%7.00

Most likely scores

correct score

1-1 10%9.91
2-1 9%10.71
1-2 7%14.90
2-0 7%14.97
2-2 7%15.31
1-0 6%15.65
3-1 6%16.50
0-1 4%22.42

Every score

Twente goals ↓ Ajax goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	4	3	2	1
1	6	10	7	3	1
2	7	9	7	3	1
3	4	6	4	2	1
4	2	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

Half-time result

xG 0.87 – 0.63

Twente ahead 38% Fair odds 2.62

Level 38% Fair odds 2.66

Ajax ahead 24% Fair odds 4.13

First-half goals

Over 0.577%1.30

Under 0.523%4.35

Over 1.545%2.23

Under 1.555%1.81

Over 2.519%5.25

Under 2.581%1.24

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Twente	Draw	Ajax
Twente	31%3.23	5%19.76	2%46.95
Level	16%6.27	12%8.35	10%10.32
Ajax	3%29.76	5%19.53	16%6.35

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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