Football
Leeds
Tottenham
41%
2.46
27%
3.70
32%
3.10
50%xG 2.7
55%1.83
11-07
Arsenal
Hull
74%
1.34
17%
5.72
8%
12.30
55%xG 2.9
41%2.42
11-07
Fulham
Newcastle
53%
1.88
24%
4.12
22%
4.46
55%xG 2.9
56%1.79
11-07
Nott'm Forest
Man City
28%
3.59
26%
3.87
46%
2.16
53%xG 2.8
56%1.77
11-08
Brighton
Brentford
59%
1.68
23%
4.39
18%
5.61
55%xG 2.9
53%1.87
11-08
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
29%
3.50
25%
4.02
47%
2.15
58%xG 3.0
60%1.67
11-08
Ipswich
Bournemouth
24%
4.13
24%
4.21
52%
1.92
59%xG 3.1
60%1.68
11-08
Sunderland
Chelsea
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.54
52%xG 2.8
57%1.77
11-08
Man United
Aston Villa
36%
2.75
25%
3.98
38%
2.60
59%xG 3.1
62%1.61
11-21
Man City
Fulham
64%
1.57
21%
4.76
15%
6.46
59%xG 3.0
54%1.85
11-21
Bournemouth
Nott'm Forest
58%
1.71
23%
4.28
18%
5.51
53%xG 2.8
52%1.92
11-21
Aston Villa
Sunderland
64%
1.55
21%
4.68
14%
7.05
55%xG 2.9
50%2.01
11-21
Chelsea
Leeds
46%
2.16
25%
3.97
28%
3.51
56%xG 2.9
59%1.70
11-21
Coventry
Crystal Palace
45%
2.22
26%
3.90
29%
3.41
55%xG 2.9
58%1.73
11-21
Tottenham
Ipswich
58%
1.72
23%
4.44
19%
5.16
59%xG 3.0
57%1.76
11-21
Newcastle
Arsenal
20%
4.97
25%
3.94
55%
1.83
48%xG 2.6
50%2.01
11-22
Hull
Brighton
20%
5.02
24%
4.21
56%
1.78
54%xG 2.9
54%1.85
11-22
Liverpool
Man United
56%
1.77
22%
4.56
22%
4.61
64%xG 3.3
62%1.60
11-23
Brentford
Everton
45%
2.21
27%
3.74
28%
3.58
49%xG 2.6
54%1.87
11-27
Nott'm Forest
Chelsea
46%
2.20
26%
3.87
29%
3.49
54%xG 2.8
57%1.76
11-28
Leeds
Coventry
54%
1.85
24%
4.13
22%
4.64
54%xG 2.9
55%1.82
11-28
Man United
Brentford
45%
2.21
25%
4.03
30%
3.34
58%xG 3.0
61%1.64
11-28
Ipswich
Aston Villa
29%
3.51
25%
4.04
47%
2.14
58%xG 3.0
60%1.66
Nothing matches this filter. Pick another day or clear the search.
Premier League
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
24 | 53% | 98% | – |
| 2 | Man City |
21 | 32% | 95% | – |
| 3 | Brighton |
19 | 12% | 85% | – |
| 4 | Bournemouth |
12 | 1% | 40% | – |
| 5 | Liverpool |
15 | 1% | 36% | – |
| 6 | Aston Villa |
12 | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 | Chelsea |
16 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 | Brentford |
14 | – | 5% | 1% |
| 9 | Tottenham |
12 | – | 5% | 2% |
| 10 | Everton |
13 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 11 | Leeds |
11 | – | 2% | 4% |
| 12 | Fulham |
9 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 13 | Man United |
7 | – | <1% | 12% |
| 14 | Nott'm Forest |
6 | – | <1% | 14% |
| 15 | Newcastle |
11 | – | – | 22% |
| 16 | Ipswich |
11 | – | <1% | 26% |
| 17 | Coventry |
9 | – | – | 42% |
| 18 | Crystal Palace |
7 | – | – | 49% |
| 19 | Hull |
11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 | Sunderland |
5 | – | – | 65% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Championship
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough |
28 | 40% | 63% | – |
| 2 |  Southampton |
28 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 3 |  West Ham |
23 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Birmingham |
26 | 10% | 26% | – |
| 5 |  Wolves |
27 | 4% | 11% | – |
| 6 |  Swansea |
26 | 2% | 6% | – |
| 7 |  West Brom |
25 | <1% | 4% | – |
| 8 |  Norwich |
18 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 9 |  QPR |
21 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 10 |  Portsmouth |
22 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 11 |  Stoke |
26 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 12 |  Millwall |
18 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United |
22 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Wrexham |
17 | – | – | <1% |
| 15 |  Bristol City |
18 | – | – | 1% |
| 16 |  Cardiff |
15 | – | – | 2% |
| 17 |  Blackburn |
18 | – | – | 3% |
| 18 |  Bolton |
17 | – | – | 5% |
| 19 |  Burnley |
10 | – | – | 15% |
| 20 |  Lincoln |
15 | – | – | 19% |
| 21 |  Watford |
14 | – | – | 24% |
| 22 |  Charlton |
14 | – | – | 52% |
| 23 |  Derby |
7 | – | – | 81% |
| 24 |  Preston |
5 | – | – | 97% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
La Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona |
30 | 89% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
27 | 11% | >99% | – |
| 3 |  Ath Madrid |
28 | <1% | 97% | – |
| 4 |  Betis |
23 | – | 57% | – |
| 5 |  Sociedad |
19 | – | 30% | – |
| 6 |  Ath Bilbao |
15 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 7 |  Sevilla |
17 | – | 5% | <1% |
| 8 |  Vallecano |
12 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 9 |  Villarreal |
12 | – | <1% | 4% |
| 10 |  Alaves |
12 | – | <1% | 5% |
| 11 |  Elche |
10 | – | <1% | 6% |
| 12 |  Levante |
10 | – | <1% | 7% |
| 13 |  La Coruna |
14 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 14 |  Celta |
12 | – | – | 13% |
| 15 |  Espanol |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 16 |  Valencia |
9 | – | – | 28% |
| 17 |  Osasuna |
11 | – | – | 30% |
| 18 |  Getafe |
12 | – | – | 36% |
| 19 | Santander | 11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Malaga |
5 | – | – | 86% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Bundesliga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
18 | 98% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
18 | 2% | 87% | – |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig |
15 | <1% | 55% | – |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
16 | <1% | 50% | – |
| 5 |  Leverkusen |
13 | <1% | 48% | – |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
15 | – | 22% | – |
| 7 |  Stuttgart |
9 | – | 22% | – |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim |
9 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
9 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 10 |  Ein Frankfurt |
11 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 11 |  Mainz |
10 | – | 2% | 2% |
| 12 |  Elversberg |
13 | – | 1% | 3% |
| 13 |  FC Koln |
9 | – | <1% | 9% |
| 14 |  Hamburg |
9 | – | – | 22% |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
9 | – | – | 26% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
7 | – | – | 27% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach |
4 | – | – | 53% |
| 18 |  Schalke 04 |
6 | – | – | 54% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Serie A
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como |
23 | 71% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Inter |
25 | 21% | 97% | – |
| 3 |  Roma |
24 | 6% | 87% | – |
| 4 |  Lazio |
28 | 2% | 63% | – |
| 5 |  Juventus |
17 | <1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Milan |
21 | – | 7% | – |
| 7 |  Napoli |
14 | – | 5% | – |
| 8 |  Frosinone |
20 | – | 4% | – |
| 9 |  Bologna |
14 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Cagliari |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 11 |  Torino |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Genoa |
13 | – | – | 6% |
| 13 |  Atalanta |
11 | – | – | 10% |
| 14 |  Fiorentina |
8 | – | – | 11% |
| 15 |  Parma |
8 | – | – | 29% |
| 16 |  Lecce |
9 | – | – | 36% |
| 17 |  Sassuolo |
8 | – | – | 41% |
| 18 |  Monza |
7 | – | – | 42% |
| 19 |  Udinese |
5 | – | – | 44% |
| 20 |  Venezia |
3 | – | – | 73% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Ligue 1
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris SG |
20 | >99% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Paris FC |
17 | – | 48% | – |
| 3 |  Monaco |
15 | – | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Lyon |
17 | – | 36% | – |
| 5 |  Lille |
18 | – | 22% | – |
| 6 |  Rennes |
16 | – | 20% | – |
| 7 |  Marseille |
15 | – | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brest |
12 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
10 | – | 4% | <1% |
| 10 |  Toulouse |
10 | – | 3% | <1% |
| 11 |  Nice |
14 | – | 2% | 1% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
12 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 13 |  Lens |
13 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
10 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Troyes |
8 | – | – | 34% |
| 16 |  Le Havre |
2 | – | – | 39% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
7 | – | – | 43% |
| 18 |  Angers |
8 | – | – | 62% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Eredivisie
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Twente |
23 | 41% | 67% | – |
| 2 |  Ajax |
24 | 30% | 58% | – |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven |
23 | 17% | 39% | – |
| 4 |  Feyenoord |
25 | 10% | 27% | – |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar |
20 | 2% | 8% | – |
| 6 |  Heerenveen |
18 | – | <1% | – |
| 7 |  For Sittard |
19 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Groningen |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 9 |  Cambuur |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Nijmegen |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
14 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Utrecht |
12 | – | – | 5% |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
12 | – | – | 8% |
| 14 |  Telstar |
9 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Den Haag |
6 | – | – | 18% |
| 16 |  Zwolle |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 17 |  Excelsior |
11 | – | – | 32% |
| 18 |  Willem II |
2 | – | – | >99% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
30 | 49% | 91% | – |
| 2 |  Benfica |
25 | 47% | 90% | – |
| 3 |  Sp Lisbon |
21 | 4% | 17% | – |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
21 | – | <1% | – |
| 5 |  Arouca |
20 | – | <1% | – |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
20 | – | – | – |
| 7 |  Sp Braga |
14 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente |
15 | – | – | – |
| 9 |  Alverca |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Famalicao |
10 | – | – | – |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
14 | – | – | <1% |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | – | – | 3% |
| 13 |  Maritimo |
8 | – | – | 15% |
| 14 |  Nacional |
7 | – | – | 18% |
| 15 |  Rio Ave |
7 | – | – | 25% |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
7 | – | – | 29% |
| 17 |  Estoril |
2 | – | – | 31% |
| 18 |  Vitoria |
9 | – | – | 79% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
| # | Team | League | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
Premier League | |
| 2 | Man City |
Premier League | |
| 3 | Aston Villa |
Premier League | |
| 4 | Brighton |
Premier League | |
| 5 | Liverpool |
Premier League | |
| 6 | Bournemouth |
Premier League | |
| 7 | Brentford |
Premier League | |
| 8 | Chelsea |
Premier League | |
| 9 | Leeds |
Premier League | |
| 10 | Man United |
Premier League | |
| 11 | Newcastle |
Premier League | |
| 12 | Nott'm Forest |
Premier League | |
| 13 | Tottenham |
Premier League | |
| 14 | Everton |
Premier League | |
| 15 | Coventry |
Premier League | |
| 16 | Fulham |
Premier League | |
| 17 | Ipswich |
Premier League | |
| 18 | Crystal Palace |
Premier League | |
| 19 | Sunderland |
Premier League | |
| 20 | Hull |
Premier League |
Who wins
| Called right | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 1.0211 | 0.612 |
| Elo model | 49% | 1.0233 | 0.6135 |
| Bookmakers, early odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.9976 | 0.5961 |
| Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.999 | 0.5971 |
When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.
Goals markets
| Market | Goals model | Naive guess | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.676 |
| Both teams score | 0.686 | 0.691 | — |
| Half-time result | 1.053 | 1.081 | — |
| First-half goal | 0.601 | 0.605 | — |
| Half-time / full-time | 1.907 | 1.962 | — |
"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.
Compare any two teams
Prediction, goals markets, form, rating trend and past meetings.