Football
Dundee United
Motherwell
48%
2.08
25%
4.03
27%
3.68
57%xG 3.0
59%1.69
11-07
St Johnstone
Dundee
39%
2.57
26%
3.84
35%
2.85
55%xG 2.9
59%1.70
11-07
Aberdeen
Hibernian
41%
2.46
28%
3.63
32%
3.14
48%xG 2.6
53%1.88
11-07
St Mirren
Rangers
19%
5.31
23%
4.37
58%
1.71
56%xG 2.9
55%1.82
11-08
Hearts
Falkirk
52%
1.91
25%
4.01
23%
4.41
53%xG 2.8
54%1.84
11-08
Celtic
Kilmarnock
77%
1.29
14%
7.25
9%
11.22
75%xG 3.9
59%1.70
11-21
Celtic
St Mirren
73%
1.36
16%
6.06
10%
9.77
66%xG 3.4
54%1.86
11-21
Falkirk
St Johnstone
53%
1.88
24%
4.09
22%
4.49
54%xG 2.9
55%1.81
11-21
Hibernian
Dundee United
39%
2.56
26%
3.80
35%
2.89
54%xG 2.8
58%1.73
11-21
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
43%
2.33
26%
3.85
31%
3.22
54%xG 2.8
58%1.73
11-21
Dundee
Hearts
36%
2.76
26%
3.79
37%
2.68
53%xG 2.8
58%1.74
11-21
Motherwell
Rangers
26%
3.92
24%
4.17
51%
1.98
59%xG 3.1
60%1.66
11-24
Hibernian
Dundee
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.32
53%xG 2.8
57%1.75
11-24
Rangers
Aberdeen
74%
1.34
16%
6.19
9%
10.56
65%xG 3.4
52%1.93
11-28
Aberdeen
Dundee
40%
2.50
26%
3.77
33%
2.99
53%xG 2.8
57%1.76
11-28
Dundee United
St Johnstone
58%
1.74
23%
4.40
20%
5.06
58%xG 3.0
57%1.76
11-28
Rangers
Falkirk
69%
1.44
18%
5.50
13%
7.94
65%xG 3.3
56%1.79
11-28
St Mirren
Kilmarnock
46%
2.15
26%
3.86
28%
3.62
53%xG 2.8
56%1.79
11-28
Motherwell
Hibernian
49%
2.05
26%
3.89
25%
3.93
52%xG 2.8
55%1.82
Nothing matches this filter. Pick another day or clear the search.
Premier League
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
24 | 53% | 98% | – |
| 2 |  Man City |
21 | 32% | 95% | – |
| 3 |  Brighton |
19 | 12% | 85% | – |
| 4 |  Bournemouth |
12 | 1% | 40% | – |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
15 | 1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Aston Villa |
12 | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
16 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brentford |
14 | – | 5% | 1% |
| 9 |  Tottenham |
12 | – | 5% | 2% |
| 10 |  Everton |
13 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 11 |  Leeds |
11 | – | 2% | 4% |
| 12 |  Fulham |
9 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 13 |  Man United |
7 | – | <1% | 12% |
| 14 |  Nott'm Forest |
6 | – | <1% | 14% |
| 15 |  Newcastle |
11 | – | – | 22% |
| 16 |  Ipswich |
11 | – | <1% | 26% |
| 17 |  Coventry |
9 | – | – | 42% |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace |
7 | – | – | 49% |
| 19 |  Hull |
11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
5 | – | – | 65% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Championship
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough |
28 | 40% | 63% | – |
| 2 |  Southampton |
28 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 3 |  West Ham |
23 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Birmingham |
26 | 10% | 26% | – |
| 5 |  Wolves |
27 | 4% | 11% | – |
| 6 |  Swansea |
26 | 2% | 6% | – |
| 7 |  West Brom |
25 | <1% | 4% | – |
| 8 |  Norwich |
18 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 9 |  QPR |
21 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 10 |  Portsmouth |
22 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 11 |  Stoke |
26 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 12 |  Millwall |
18 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United |
22 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Wrexham |
17 | – | – | <1% |
| 15 |  Bristol City |
18 | – | – | 1% |
| 16 |  Cardiff |
15 | – | – | 2% |
| 17 |  Blackburn |
18 | – | – | 3% |
| 18 |  Bolton |
17 | – | – | 5% |
| 19 |  Burnley |
10 | – | – | 15% |
| 20 |  Lincoln |
15 | – | – | 19% |
| 21 |  Watford |
14 | – | – | 24% |
| 22 |  Charlton |
14 | – | – | 52% |
| 23 |  Derby |
7 | – | – | 81% |
| 24 |  Preston |
5 | – | – | 97% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
La Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona |
30 | 89% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
27 | 11% | >99% | – |
| 3 |  Ath Madrid |
28 | <1% | 97% | – |
| 4 |  Betis |
23 | – | 57% | – |
| 5 |  Sociedad |
19 | – | 30% | – |
| 6 |  Ath Bilbao |
15 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 7 |  Sevilla |
17 | – | 5% | <1% |
| 8 |  Vallecano |
12 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 9 |  Villarreal |
12 | – | <1% | 4% |
| 10 |  Alaves |
12 | – | <1% | 5% |
| 11 |  Elche |
10 | – | <1% | 6% |
| 12 |  Levante |
10 | – | <1% | 7% |
| 13 |  La Coruna |
14 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 14 |  Celta |
12 | – | – | 13% |
| 15 |  Espanol |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 16 |  Valencia |
9 | – | – | 28% |
| 17 |  Osasuna |
11 | – | – | 30% |
| 18 |  Getafe |
12 | – | – | 36% |
| 19 | Santander | 11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Malaga |
5 | – | – | 86% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Bundesliga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
18 | 98% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
18 | 2% | 87% | – |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig |
15 | <1% | 55% | – |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
16 | <1% | 50% | – |
| 5 |  Leverkusen |
13 | <1% | 48% | – |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
15 | – | 22% | – |
| 7 |  Stuttgart |
9 | – | 22% | – |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim |
9 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
9 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 10 |  Ein Frankfurt |
11 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 11 |  Mainz |
10 | – | 2% | 2% |
| 12 |  Elversberg |
13 | – | 1% | 3% |
| 13 |  FC Koln |
9 | – | <1% | 9% |
| 14 |  Hamburg |
9 | – | – | 22% |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
9 | – | – | 26% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
7 | – | – | 27% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach |
4 | – | – | 53% |
| 18 |  Schalke 04 |
6 | – | – | 54% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Serie A
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como |
23 | 71% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Inter |
25 | 21% | 97% | – |
| 3 |  Roma |
24 | 6% | 87% | – |
| 4 |  Lazio |
28 | 2% | 63% | – |
| 5 |  Juventus |
17 | <1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Milan |
21 | – | 7% | – |
| 7 |  Napoli |
14 | – | 5% | – |
| 8 |  Frosinone |
20 | – | 4% | – |
| 9 |  Bologna |
14 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Cagliari |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 11 |  Torino |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Genoa |
13 | – | – | 6% |
| 13 |  Atalanta |
11 | – | – | 10% |
| 14 |  Fiorentina |
8 | – | – | 11% |
| 15 |  Parma |
8 | – | – | 29% |
| 16 |  Lecce |
9 | – | – | 36% |
| 17 |  Sassuolo |
8 | – | – | 41% |
| 18 |  Monza |
7 | – | – | 42% |
| 19 |  Udinese |
5 | – | – | 44% |
| 20 |  Venezia |
3 | – | – | 73% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Ligue 1
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris SG |
20 | >99% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Paris FC |
17 | – | 48% | – |
| 3 |  Monaco |
15 | – | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Lyon |
17 | – | 36% | – |
| 5 |  Lille |
18 | – | 22% | – |
| 6 |  Rennes |
16 | – | 20% | – |
| 7 |  Marseille |
15 | – | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brest |
12 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
10 | – | 4% | <1% |
| 10 |  Toulouse |
10 | – | 3% | <1% |
| 11 |  Nice |
14 | – | 2% | 1% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
12 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 13 |  Lens |
13 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
10 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Troyes |
8 | – | – | 34% |
| 16 |  Le Havre |
2 | – | – | 39% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
7 | – | – | 43% |
| 18 |  Angers |
8 | – | – | 62% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Eredivisie
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Twente |
23 | 41% | 67% | – |
| 2 |  Ajax |
24 | 30% | 58% | – |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven |
23 | 17% | 39% | – |
| 4 |  Feyenoord |
25 | 10% | 27% | – |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar |
20 | 2% | 8% | – |
| 6 |  Heerenveen |
18 | – | <1% | – |
| 7 |  For Sittard |
19 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Groningen |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 9 |  Cambuur |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Nijmegen |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
14 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Utrecht |
12 | – | – | 5% |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
12 | – | – | 8% |
| 14 |  Telstar |
9 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Den Haag |
6 | – | – | 18% |
| 16 |  Zwolle |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 17 |  Excelsior |
11 | – | – | 32% |
| 18 |  Willem II |
2 | – | – | >99% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
30 | 49% | 91% | – |
| 2 |  Benfica |
25 | 47% | 90% | – |
| 3 |  Sp Lisbon |
21 | 4% | 17% | – |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
21 | – | <1% | – |
| 5 |  Arouca |
20 | – | <1% | – |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
20 | – | – | – |
| 7 |  Sp Braga |
14 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente |
15 | – | – | – |
| 9 |  Alverca |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Famalicao |
10 | – | – | – |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
14 | – | – | <1% |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | – | – | 3% |
| 13 |  Maritimo |
8 | – | – | 15% |
| 14 |  Nacional |
7 | – | – | 18% |
| 15 |  Rio Ave |
7 | – | – | 25% |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
7 | – | – | 29% |
| 17 |  Estoril |
2 | – | – | 31% |
| 18 |  Vitoria |
9 | – | – | 79% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
| # | Team | League | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 2 | Rangers |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 3 | Hearts |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 4 | Hibernian |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 5 | Falkirk |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 6 | Motherwell |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 7 | Dundee United |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 8 | Dundee |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 9 | St Johnstone |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 10 | Aberdeen |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 11 | Kilmarnock |
Scottish Premiership | |
| 12 | St Mirren |
Scottish Premiership |
Who wins
| Called right | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 1.0211 | 0.612 |
| Elo model | 49% | 1.0233 | 0.6135 |
| Bookmakers, early odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.9976 | 0.5961 |
| Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.999 | 0.5971 |
When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.
Goals markets
| Market | Goals model | Naive guess | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.676 |
| Both teams score | 0.686 | 0.691 | — |
| Half-time result | 1.053 | 1.081 | — |
| First-half goal | 0.601 | 0.605 | — |
| Half-time / full-time | 1.907 | 1.962 | — |
"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.
Compare any two teams
Prediction, goals markets, form, rating trend and past meetings.