Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

National League 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-14 Hornchurch Tamworth 35% 2.87 25% 4.03 40% 2.48 60%xG 3.1 63%1.60 11-14

Carlisle Boston Utd 70% 1.43 18% 5.69 13% 7.97 68%xG 3.5 58%1.73 11-14

Eastleigh

Fylde 36% 2.75 26% 3.86 38% 2.65 56%xG 2.9 59%1.69 11-14

Gateshead

Barrow 19% 5.29 23% 4.44 59% 1.71 58%xG 3.0 56%1.78 11-14

Harrogate

Altrincham 64% 1.57 21% 4.81 15% 6.53 59%xG 3.1 54%1.84 11-14

Hartlepool

Wealdstone 44% 2.25 26% 3.90 30% 3.34 55%xG 2.9 58%1.72 11-14 Kidderminster

Halifax 33% 3.06 29% 3.42 38% 2.63 42%xG 2.4 48%2.07 11-14

Scunthorpe Worthing 38% 2.62 25% 4.05 37% 2.69 61%xG 3.2 63%1.58 11-14

Southend

Aldershot 73% 1.37 16% 6.11 11% 9.21 69%xG 3.5 56%1.77 11-14

Sutton

Solihull 57% 1.75 23% 4.38 20% 4.96 58%xG 3.0 57%1.75 11-14

Yeovil

Boreham Wood 27% 3.66 25% 4.04 48% 2.09 57%xG 3.0 59%1.68 11-20

Southend

Boreham Wood 38% 2.60 24% 4.08 37% 2.70 62%xG 3.2 64%1.56 11-21

Solihull

Altrincham 34% 2.97 25% 3.97 41% 2.43 58%xG 3.0 61%1.63 11-21 Tamworth

Eastleigh 56% 1.77 23% 4.42 21% 4.76 60%xG 3.1 59%1.69 11-21

Aldershot

Scunthorpe 43% 2.33 25% 4.03 32% 3.10 59%xG 3.1 62%1.61 11-21

Barrow

Carlisle 38% 2.62 25% 3.93 36% 2.75 58%xG 3.0 61%1.64 11-21

Halifax

Woking 46% 2.18 26% 3.80 28% 3.59 51%xG 2.7 55%1.82 11-21

Gateshead

Hartlepool 32% 3.14 27% 3.75 41% 2.41 51%xG 2.7 56%1.79 11-21 Kidderminster

Fylde 42% 2.39 28% 3.57 30% 3.31 46%xG 2.5 51%1.95 11-21

Sutton Boston Utd 49% 2.06 25% 3.96 26% 3.82 54%xG 2.9 57%1.76 11-21

Wealdstone Hornchurch 52% 1.92 24% 4.26 25% 4.07 60%xG 3.1 61%1.64 11-21 Worthing

Harrogate 30% 3.30 25% 4.05 45% 2.22 59%xG 3.1 62%1.62 11-21

Yeovil

Forest Green 47% 2.15 26% 3.90 28% 3.60 54%xG 2.8 57%1.76 11-24

Fylde

Halifax 36% 2.77 26% 3.87 38% 2.63 56%xG 2.9 59%1.68 11-24 Hornchurch

Sutton 36% 2.76 27% 3.72 37% 2.70 51%xG 2.7 56%1.78 11-24

Altrincham

Wealdstone 51% 1.95 24% 4.19 25% 4.04 59%xG 3.1 60%1.67 11-24 Boston Utd

Barrow 31% 3.19 25% 3.94 43% 2.31 57%xG 3.0 60%1.67 11-24

Carlisle Tamworth 65% 1.53 19% 5.25 16% 6.35 68%xG 3.5 61%1.63 11-24

Eastleigh

Yeovil 31% 3.18 27% 3.73 42% 2.39 51%xG 2.7 55%1.81 11-24

Forest Green

Southend 33% 2.99 25% 3.98 41% 2.41 59%xG 3.0 61%1.63 11-24

Scunthorpe

Gateshead 61% 1.65 21% 4.66 18% 5.58 61%xG 3.1 58%1.73 11-24

Woking Worthing 53% 1.90 24% 4.19 24% 4.24 58%xG 3.0 58%1.71 11-25

Boreham Wood

Aldershot 80% 1.25 13% 7.79 7% 13.81 73%xG 3.8 54%1.84 11-25

Harrogate Kidderminster 62% 1.61 23% 4.33 15% 6.78 49%xG 2.6 46%2.16 11-25

Hartlepool

Solihull 52% 1.92 24% 4.14 24% 4.20 57%xG 3.0 58%1.73 11-27

Scunthorpe

Wealdstone 46% 2.18 24% 4.13 30% 3.34 61%xG 3.1 63%1.59 11-28

Fylde

Aldershot 56% 1.77 22% 4.49 21% 4.70 62%xG 3.2 61%1.65 11-28

Woking

Barrow 44% 2.29 26% 3.79 30% 3.35 52%xG 2.8 56%1.79 11-28 Hornchurch

Solihull 49% 2.06 24% 4.16 27% 3.64 61%xG 3.1 62%1.62 11-28

Altrincham Worthing 44% 2.29 25% 3.99 31% 3.19 58%xG 3.0 61%1.64 11-28

Boreham Wood

Gateshead 87% 1.15 9% 11.05 4% 24.94 77%xG 4.1 48%2.06 11-28 Boston Utd Kidderminster 41% 2.43 28% 3.56 31% 3.24 46%xG 2.5 51%1.95 11-28

Carlisle

Sutton 65% 1.54 20% 4.92 15% 6.77 60%xG 3.1 55%1.83 11-28

Eastleigh

Halifax 27% 3.65 26% 3.85 47% 2.15 52%xG 2.8 56%1.80 11-28

Forest Green Tamworth 50% 2.01 24% 4.22 27% 3.77 61%xG 3.2 62%1.61 11-28

Harrogate

Yeovil 58% 1.72 23% 4.36 19% 5.33 56%xG 2.9 55%1.83 11-28

Hartlepool

Southend 24% 4.10 25% 4.05 51% 1.96 55%xG 2.9 57%1.76

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	Boreham Wood	National League	1226	198
2	Carlisle	National League	1169	246
3	Harrogate	National League	1153	246
4	Southend	National League	1150	244
5	Barrow	National League	1130	245
6	Halifax	National League	1096	244
7	Forest Green	National League	1087	244
8	Woking	National League	1086	244
9	Worthing	National League	1076	16
10	Altrincham	National League	1070	244
11	Yeovil	National League	1068	198
12	Fylde	National League	1051	108
13	Kidderminster	National League	1040	62
14	Boston Utd	National League	1037	108
15	Sutton	National League	1036	246
16	Tamworth	National League	1035	107
17	Hornchurch	National League	1029	16
18	Scunthorpe	National League	1019	153
19	Hartlepool	National League	1019	246
20	Wealdstone	National League	1018	244
21	Aldershot	National League	1010	244
22	Eastleigh	National League	1005	244
23	Morecambe	National League	994	230
24	Solihull	National League	992	244
25	Truro	National League	978	46
26	Brackley Town	National League	954	46
27	Braintree Town	National League	952	92
28	Gateshead	National League	935	199

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

National League 2026-11-20

Southend Rated 1150

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 1.61 – 1.58

Boreham Wood Rated 1226

Southend Model pick 38% Fair odds 2.60

Draw 24% Fair odds 4.08

Boreham Wood 37% Fair odds 2.70

Add to slip: Southend Draw Boreham Wood

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Southend	Draw	Boreham Wood
Goals model	38%	24%	37%
Elo model	34%	28%	38%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Favours Boreham Wood

-22 pts

Boreham Wood are rated 76 points above Southend (1226 to 1150), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
Home advantage Favours Southend

+18 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Southend's chance of winning and takes the same from Boreham Wood's.
Attack against defence Neutral

Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Southend score 0.7 a match against an average side (3rd in National League); Boreham Wood concede 2.3 (1st best defence).
Last 5 matches Favours Boreham Wood

Southend LDDWW, barely moved; Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Past meetings Favours Boreham Wood

Southend won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

SouthendBoreham Wood

2025-11-081116–12262026-10-31

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%21.60

Over 1.583%1.20

Under 1.517%5.99

Over 2.562%1.62

Under 2.538%2.62

Over 3.540%2.53

Under 3.560%1.66

Over 4.522%4.58

Under 4.578%1.28

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes64%1.56

Both score: no36%2.79

Southend clean sheet21%4.86

Boreham Wood clean sheet20%5.02

Most likely scores

correct score

1-1 11%9.11
2-1 8%11.85
1-2 8%12.09
2-2 7%14.99
1-0 6%16.39
0-1 6%16.78
2-0 5%18.73
0-2 5%19.53

Every score

Southend goals ↓ Boreham Wood goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	1
1	6	11	8	4	2	1
2	5	8	7	4	1
3	3	5	4	2	1
4	1	2	1	1
5		1

Half-time result

xG 0.79 – 0.57

Southend ahead 37% Fair odds 2.72

Level 40% Fair odds 2.51

Boreham Wood ahead 23% Fair odds 4.26

First-half goals

Over 0.574%1.36

Under 0.526%3.80

Over 1.540%2.50

Under 1.560%1.66

Over 2.516%6.39

Under 2.584%1.19

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Southend	Draw	Boreham Wood
Southend	26%3.90	7%14.43	4%24.21
Level	11%8.72	13%7.78	15%6.46
Boreham Wood	2%56.82	4%26.39	18%5.58

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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