Football
Malaga
Santander
44%
2.28
24%
4.13
32%
3.13
62%xG 3.2
64%1.56
11-07
Malaga
Racing Club
58%
1.73
23%
4.39
19%
5.16
58%xG 3.0
56%1.78
11-07
Espanol
La Coruna
42%
2.38
27%
3.74
31%
3.20
51%xG 2.7
55%1.80
11-07
Osasuna
Ath Bilbao
33%
3.03
27%
3.64
40%
2.53
49%xG 2.6
54%1.86
11-07
Valencia
Real Madrid
15%
6.46
21%
4.86
64%
1.56
60%xG 3.1
55%1.81
11-08
Elche
Betis
37%
2.70
26%
3.92
37%
2.68
57%xG 3.0
61%1.65
11-08
Sociedad
Vallecano
52%
1.92
24%
4.24
24%
4.13
60%xG 3.1
60%1.66
11-08
Celta
Levante
42%
2.36
26%
3.77
31%
3.20
52%xG 2.8
56%1.78
11-08
Villarreal
Getafe
55%
1.81
25%
4.07
20%
4.93
51%xG 2.7
52%1.92
11-08
Ath Madrid
Barcelona
25%
3.98
22%
4.50
53%
1.90
67%xG 3.4
66%1.53
11-20
Ath Bilbao
Espanol
55%
1.80
25%
4.06
20%
5.01
51%xG 2.7
52%1.94
11-21
Alaves
La Coruna
49%
2.04
26%
3.86
25%
3.97
51%xG 2.7
54%1.85
11-21
Vallecano
Valencia
53%
1.90
25%
3.92
22%
4.55
50%xG 2.7
52%1.93
11-21
Sevilla
Betis
38%
2.64
26%
3.90
37%
2.74
57%xG 3.0
60%1.66
11-21
Real Madrid
Celta
78%
1.28
14%
7.08
8%
12.77
69%xG 3.6
52%1.93
11-22
Barcelona
Villarreal
87%
1.15
8%
11.96
5%
21.98
85%xG 4.7
59%1.71
11-22
Racing Club
Sociedad
15%
6.62
20%
5.05
65%
1.54
63%xG 3.2
57%1.75
11-22
Osasuna
Malaga
53%
1.90
24%
4.10
23%
4.37
55%xG 2.9
56%1.78
11-22
Getafe
Ath Madrid
20%
4.91
26%
3.79
53%
1.88
45%xG 2.5
47%2.12
11-23
Levante
Elche
45%
2.21
25%
3.93
29%
3.40
56%xG 2.9
59%1.71
11-27
Levante
Racing Club
72%
1.39
17%
5.81
11%
9.27
64%xG 3.3
53%1.88
11-28
Betis
Vallecano
52%
1.92
24%
4.22
24%
4.12
59%xG 3.1
60%1.67
11-28
Malaga
Ath Bilbao
27%
3.73
26%
3.86
47%
2.12
52%xG 2.8
55%1.81
11-28
Elche
Ath Madrid
29%
3.51
26%
3.84
45%
2.20
53%xG 2.8
56%1.78
11-28
Real Madrid
Alaves
75%
1.33
15%
6.46
9%
10.65
68%xG 3.5
54%1.85
Nothing matches this filter. Pick another day or clear the search.
Premier League
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
24 | 53% | 98% | – |
| 2 |  Man City |
21 | 32% | 95% | – |
| 3 |  Brighton |
19 | 12% | 85% | – |
| 4 |  Bournemouth |
12 | 1% | 40% | – |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
15 | 1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Aston Villa |
12 | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
16 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brentford |
14 | – | 5% | 1% |
| 9 |  Tottenham |
12 | – | 5% | 2% |
| 10 |  Everton |
13 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 11 |  Leeds |
11 | – | 2% | 4% |
| 12 |  Fulham |
9 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 13 |  Man United |
7 | – | <1% | 12% |
| 14 |  Nott'm Forest |
6 | – | <1% | 14% |
| 15 |  Newcastle |
11 | – | – | 22% |
| 16 |  Ipswich |
11 | – | <1% | 26% |
| 17 |  Coventry |
9 | – | – | 42% |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace |
7 | – | – | 49% |
| 19 |  Hull |
11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
5 | – | – | 65% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Championship
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough |
28 | 40% | 63% | – |
| 2 |  Southampton |
28 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 3 |  West Ham |
23 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Birmingham |
26 | 10% | 26% | – |
| 5 |  Wolves |
27 | 4% | 11% | – |
| 6 |  Swansea |
26 | 2% | 6% | – |
| 7 |  West Brom |
25 | <1% | 4% | – |
| 8 |  Norwich |
18 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 9 |  QPR |
21 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 10 |  Portsmouth |
22 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 11 |  Stoke |
26 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 12 |  Millwall |
18 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United |
22 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Wrexham |
17 | – | – | <1% |
| 15 |  Bristol City |
18 | – | – | 1% |
| 16 |  Cardiff |
15 | – | – | 2% |
| 17 |  Blackburn |
18 | – | – | 3% |
| 18 |  Bolton |
17 | – | – | 5% |
| 19 |  Burnley |
10 | – | – | 15% |
| 20 |  Lincoln |
15 | – | – | 19% |
| 21 |  Watford |
14 | – | – | 24% |
| 22 |  Charlton |
14 | – | – | 52% |
| 23 |  Derby |
7 | – | – | 81% |
| 24 |  Preston |
5 | – | – | 97% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
La Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona |
30 | 89% | >99% | – |
| 2 | Real Madrid |
27 | 11% | >99% | – |
| 3 | Ath Madrid |
28 | <1% | 97% | – |
| 4 | Betis |
23 | – | 57% | – |
| 5 | Sociedad |
19 | – | 30% | – |
| 6 | Ath Bilbao |
15 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 7 | Sevilla |
17 | – | 5% | <1% |
| 8 | Vallecano |
12 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 9 | Villarreal |
12 | – | <1% | 4% |
| 10 | Alaves |
12 | – | <1% | 5% |
| 11 | Elche |
10 | – | <1% | 6% |
| 12 | Levante |
10 | – | <1% | 7% |
| 13 | La Coruna |
14 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 14 | Celta |
12 | – | – | 13% |
| 15 | Espanol |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 16 | Valencia |
9 | – | – | 28% |
| 17 | Osasuna |
11 | – | – | 30% |
| 18 | Getafe |
12 | – | – | 36% |
| 19 | Santander | 11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 | Malaga |
5 | – | – | 86% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Bundesliga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
18 | 98% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
18 | 2% | 87% | – |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig |
15 | <1% | 55% | – |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
16 | <1% | 50% | – |
| 5 |  Leverkusen |
13 | <1% | 48% | – |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
15 | – | 22% | – |
| 7 |  Stuttgart |
9 | – | 22% | – |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim |
9 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
9 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 10 |  Ein Frankfurt |
11 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 11 |  Mainz |
10 | – | 2% | 2% |
| 12 |  Elversberg |
13 | – | 1% | 3% |
| 13 |  FC Koln |
9 | – | <1% | 9% |
| 14 |  Hamburg |
9 | – | – | 22% |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
9 | – | – | 26% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
7 | – | – | 27% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach |
4 | – | – | 53% |
| 18 |  Schalke 04 |
6 | – | – | 54% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Serie A
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como |
23 | 71% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Inter |
25 | 21% | 97% | – |
| 3 |  Roma |
24 | 6% | 87% | – |
| 4 |  Lazio |
28 | 2% | 63% | – |
| 5 |  Juventus |
17 | <1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Milan |
21 | – | 7% | – |
| 7 |  Napoli |
14 | – | 5% | – |
| 8 |  Frosinone |
20 | – | 4% | – |
| 9 |  Bologna |
14 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Cagliari |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 11 |  Torino |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Genoa |
13 | – | – | 6% |
| 13 |  Atalanta |
11 | – | – | 10% |
| 14 |  Fiorentina |
8 | – | – | 11% |
| 15 |  Parma |
8 | – | – | 29% |
| 16 |  Lecce |
9 | – | – | 36% |
| 17 |  Sassuolo |
8 | – | – | 41% |
| 18 |  Monza |
7 | – | – | 42% |
| 19 |  Udinese |
5 | – | – | 44% |
| 20 |  Venezia |
3 | – | – | 73% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Ligue 1
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris SG |
20 | >99% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Paris FC |
17 | – | 48% | – |
| 3 |  Monaco |
15 | – | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Lyon |
17 | – | 36% | – |
| 5 |  Lille |
18 | – | 22% | – |
| 6 |  Rennes |
16 | – | 20% | – |
| 7 |  Marseille |
15 | – | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brest |
12 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
10 | – | 4% | <1% |
| 10 |  Toulouse |
10 | – | 3% | <1% |
| 11 |  Nice |
14 | – | 2% | 1% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
12 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 13 |  Lens |
13 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
10 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Troyes |
8 | – | – | 34% |
| 16 |  Le Havre |
2 | – | – | 39% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
7 | – | – | 43% |
| 18 |  Angers |
8 | – | – | 62% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Eredivisie
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Twente |
23 | 41% | 67% | – |
| 2 |  Ajax |
24 | 30% | 58% | – |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven |
23 | 17% | 39% | – |
| 4 |  Feyenoord |
25 | 10% | 27% | – |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar |
20 | 2% | 8% | – |
| 6 |  Heerenveen |
18 | – | <1% | – |
| 7 |  For Sittard |
19 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Groningen |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 9 |  Cambuur |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Nijmegen |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
14 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Utrecht |
12 | – | – | 5% |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
12 | – | – | 8% |
| 14 |  Telstar |
9 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Den Haag |
6 | – | – | 18% |
| 16 |  Zwolle |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 17 |  Excelsior |
11 | – | – | 32% |
| 18 |  Willem II |
2 | – | – | >99% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
30 | 49% | 91% | – |
| 2 |  Benfica |
25 | 47% | 90% | – |
| 3 |  Sp Lisbon |
21 | 4% | 17% | – |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
21 | – | <1% | – |
| 5 |  Arouca |
20 | – | <1% | – |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
20 | – | – | – |
| 7 |  Sp Braga |
14 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente |
15 | – | – | – |
| 9 |  Alverca |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Famalicao |
10 | – | – | – |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
14 | – | – | <1% |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | – | – | 3% |
| 13 |  Maritimo |
8 | – | – | 15% |
| 14 |  Nacional |
7 | – | – | 18% |
| 15 |  Rio Ave |
7 | – | – | 25% |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
7 | – | – | 29% |
| 17 |  Estoril |
2 | – | – | 31% |
| 18 |  Vitoria |
9 | – | – | 79% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
| # | Team | League | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona |
La Liga | |
| 2 | Real Madrid |
La Liga | |
| 3 | Ath Madrid |
La Liga | |
| 4 | Betis |
La Liga | |
| 5 | Villarreal |
La Liga | |
| 6 | Sociedad |
La Liga | |
| 7 | Vallecano |
La Liga | |
| 8 | Ath Bilbao |
La Liga | |
| 9 | Celta |
La Liga | |
| 10 | Valencia |
La Liga | |
| 11 | Sevilla |
La Liga | |
| 12 | Elche |
La Liga | |
| 13 | Alaves |
La Liga | |
| 14 | Levante |
La Liga | |
| 15 | Espanol |
La Liga | |
| 16 | Getafe |
La Liga | |
| 17 | Osasuna |
La Liga | |
| 18 | La Coruna |
La Liga | |
| 19 | Santander | La Liga | |
| 20 | Malaga |
La Liga |
Who wins
| Called right | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 1.0211 | 0.612 |
| Elo model | 49% | 1.0233 | 0.6135 |
| Bookmakers, early odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.9976 | 0.5961 |
| Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.999 | 0.5971 |
When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.
Goals markets
| Market | Goals model | Naive guess | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.676 |
| Both teams score | 0.686 | 0.691 | — |
| Half-time result | 1.053 | 1.081 | — |
| First-half goal | 0.601 | 0.605 | — |
| Half-time / full-time | 1.907 | 1.962 | — |
"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.
Compare any two teams
Prediction, goals markets, form, rating trend and past meetings.