Football
AFC Wimbledon
Blackpool
36%
2.77
27%
3.64
36%
2.74
49%xG 2.6
54%1.85
11-14
Doncaster
Leyton Orient
36%
2.77
27%
3.71
37%
2.71
51%xG 2.7
56%1.79
11-14
Milton Keynes Dons
Burton
43%
2.34
27%
3.71
30%
3.29
50%xG 2.7
54%1.84
11-14
Sheffield Weds
Plymouth
47%
2.13
25%
3.97
28%
3.57
56%xG 2.9
59%1.71
11-14
Stevenage
Mansfield
45%
2.23
29%
3.48
27%
3.77
42%xG 2.4
47%2.12
11-14
Stockport
Reading
51%
1.98
25%
4.02
25%
4.06
55%xG 2.9
57%1.77
11-14
Wigan
Barnsley
40%
2.48
27%
3.66
32%
3.08
49%xG 2.6
54%1.85
11-14
Wycombe
Huddersfield
31%
3.21
26%
3.91
43%
2.31
56%xG 2.9
59%1.70
11-20
Barnsley
Sheffield Weds
34%
2.95
26%
3.91
41%
2.47
57%xG 3.0
60%1.67
11-21
Blackpool
Wigan
45%
2.25
28%
3.62
28%
3.59
46%xG 2.5
51%1.96
11-21
Reading
Bromley
74%
1.36
16%
6.09
10%
10.07
65%xG 3.4
53%1.90
11-21
Bradford
Doncaster
58%
1.72
25%
4.05
17%
5.79
47%xG 2.5
47%2.13
11-21
Burton
Luton
34%
2.99
27%
3.67
39%
2.55
50%xG 2.7
55%1.83
11-21
Cambridge
Stockport
35%
2.85
27%
3.69
38%
2.65
50%xG 2.7
55%1.81
11-21
Huddersfield
Leicester
51%
1.97
24%
4.10
25%
4.04
57%xG 3.0
58%1.72
11-21
Leyton Orient
AFC Wimbledon
60%
1.66
23%
4.32
17%
6.04
52%xG 2.8
50%2.00
11-21
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
52%
1.90
25%
4.06
23%
4.38
54%xG 2.8
55%1.81
11-21
Notts County
Stevenage
36%
2.76
30%
3.36
34%
2.94
40%xG 2.3
47%2.12
11-21
Oxford
Wycombe
58%
1.71
23%
4.38
19%
5.35
56%xG 2.9
55%1.83
11-21
Plymouth
Peterboro
62%
1.63
21%
4.82
18%
5.64
64%xG 3.3
60%1.68
11-24
Blackpool
Leicester
26%
3.91
25%
4.06
50%
2.01
57%xG 3.0
58%1.72
11-24
Bradford
Barnsley
55%
1.82
25%
4.03
20%
4.94
50%xG 2.7
51%1.95
11-24
Bromley
Wycombe
21%
4.73
23%
4.37
56%
1.79
59%xG 3.1
58%1.71
11-24
Stevenage
Sheffield Weds
42%
2.39
29%
3.47
29%
3.40
43%xG 2.4
49%2.06
11-26
Doncaster
Huddersfield
21%
4.81
24%
4.22
56%
1.80
56%xG 2.9
55%1.80
11-28
Milton Keynes Dons
Notts County
43%
2.34
27%
3.76
31%
3.26
51%xG 2.7
56%1.80
11-28
Peterboro
Cambridge
38%
2.64
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
54%xG 2.8
58%1.72
11-28
AFC Wimbledon
Barnsley
33%
3.01
27%
3.77
40%
2.48
52%xG 2.8
57%1.76
11-28
Bromley
Burton
25%
4.03
26%
3.91
50%
2.02
52%xG 2.8
55%1.83
11-28
Leicester
Mansfield
54%
1.84
24%
4.16
22%
4.65
55%xG 2.9
55%1.80
11-28
Luton
Oxford
39%
2.57
27%
3.76
34%
2.90
52%xG 2.8
57%1.76
11-28
Sheffield Weds
Reading
48%
2.08
25%
3.93
26%
3.78
54%xG 2.8
56%1.77
11-28
Stevenage
Blackpool
57%
1.76
25%
3.99
18%
5.48
47%xG 2.6
48%2.10
11-28
Stockport
Leyton Orient
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
21%
4.77
54%xG 2.9
55%1.83
11-28
Wigan
Plymouth
30%
3.29
27%
3.65
42%
2.37
48%xG 2.6
53%1.88
11-28
Wycombe
Bradford
41%
2.46
28%
3.55
31%
3.22
45%xG 2.5
51%1.96
Nothing matches this filter. Pick another day or clear the search.
Premier League
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
24 | 53% | 98% | – |
| 2 |  Man City |
21 | 32% | 95% | – |
| 3 |  Brighton |
19 | 12% | 85% | – |
| 4 |  Bournemouth |
12 | 1% | 40% | – |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
15 | 1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Aston Villa |
12 | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
16 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brentford |
14 | – | 5% | 1% |
| 9 |  Tottenham |
12 | – | 5% | 2% |
| 10 |  Everton |
13 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 11 |  Leeds |
11 | – | 2% | 4% |
| 12 |  Fulham |
9 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 13 |  Man United |
7 | – | <1% | 12% |
| 14 |  Nott'm Forest |
6 | – | <1% | 14% |
| 15 |  Newcastle |
11 | – | – | 22% |
| 16 |  Ipswich |
11 | – | <1% | 26% |
| 17 |  Coventry |
9 | – | – | 42% |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace |
7 | – | – | 49% |
| 19 |  Hull |
11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
5 | – | – | 65% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Championship
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough |
28 | 40% | 63% | – |
| 2 |  Southampton |
28 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 3 |  West Ham |
23 | 21% | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Birmingham |
26 | 10% | 26% | – |
| 5 |  Wolves |
27 | 4% | 11% | – |
| 6 |  Swansea |
26 | 2% | 6% | – |
| 7 |  West Brom |
25 | <1% | 4% | – |
| 8 |  Norwich |
18 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 9 |  QPR |
21 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 10 |  Portsmouth |
22 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 11 |  Stoke |
26 | <1% | <1% | – |
| 12 |  Millwall |
18 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United |
22 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Wrexham |
17 | – | – | <1% |
| 15 |  Bristol City |
18 | – | – | 1% |
| 16 |  Cardiff |
15 | – | – | 2% |
| 17 |  Blackburn |
18 | – | – | 3% |
| 18 |  Bolton |
17 | – | – | 5% |
| 19 |  Burnley |
10 | – | – | 15% |
| 20 |  Lincoln |
15 | – | – | 19% |
| 21 |  Watford |
14 | – | – | 24% |
| 22 |  Charlton |
14 | – | – | 52% |
| 23 |  Derby |
7 | – | – | 81% |
| 24 |  Preston |
5 | – | – | 97% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
La Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona |
30 | 89% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
27 | 11% | >99% | – |
| 3 |  Ath Madrid |
28 | <1% | 97% | – |
| 4 |  Betis |
23 | – | 57% | – |
| 5 |  Sociedad |
19 | – | 30% | – |
| 6 |  Ath Bilbao |
15 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 7 |  Sevilla |
17 | – | 5% | <1% |
| 8 |  Vallecano |
12 | – | 2% | 3% |
| 9 |  Villarreal |
12 | – | <1% | 4% |
| 10 |  Alaves |
12 | – | <1% | 5% |
| 11 |  Elche |
10 | – | <1% | 6% |
| 12 |  Levante |
10 | – | <1% | 7% |
| 13 |  La Coruna |
14 | – | <1% | 8% |
| 14 |  Celta |
12 | – | – | 13% |
| 15 |  Espanol |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 16 |  Valencia |
9 | – | – | 28% |
| 17 |  Osasuna |
11 | – | – | 30% |
| 18 |  Getafe |
12 | – | – | 36% |
| 19 | Santander | 11 | – | – | 52% |
| 20 |  Malaga |
5 | – | – | 86% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Bundesliga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
18 | 98% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
18 | 2% | 87% | – |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig |
15 | <1% | 55% | – |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
16 | <1% | 50% | – |
| 5 |  Leverkusen |
13 | <1% | 48% | – |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
15 | – | 22% | – |
| 7 |  Stuttgart |
9 | – | 22% | – |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim |
9 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
9 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 10 |  Ein Frankfurt |
11 | – | 3% | 2% |
| 11 |  Mainz |
10 | – | 2% | 2% |
| 12 |  Elversberg |
13 | – | 1% | 3% |
| 13 |  FC Koln |
9 | – | <1% | 9% |
| 14 |  Hamburg |
9 | – | – | 22% |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
9 | – | – | 26% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
7 | – | – | 27% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach |
4 | – | – | 53% |
| 18 |  Schalke 04 |
6 | – | – | 54% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Serie A
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como |
23 | 71% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Inter |
25 | 21% | 97% | – |
| 3 |  Roma |
24 | 6% | 87% | – |
| 4 |  Lazio |
28 | 2% | 63% | – |
| 5 |  Juventus |
17 | <1% | 36% | – |
| 6 |  Milan |
21 | – | 7% | – |
| 7 |  Napoli |
14 | – | 5% | – |
| 8 |  Frosinone |
20 | – | 4% | – |
| 9 |  Bologna |
14 | – | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Cagliari |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 11 |  Torino |
13 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Genoa |
13 | – | – | 6% |
| 13 |  Atalanta |
11 | – | – | 10% |
| 14 |  Fiorentina |
8 | – | – | 11% |
| 15 |  Parma |
8 | – | – | 29% |
| 16 |  Lecce |
9 | – | – | 36% |
| 17 |  Sassuolo |
8 | – | – | 41% |
| 18 |  Monza |
7 | – | – | 42% |
| 19 |  Udinese |
5 | – | – | 44% |
| 20 |  Venezia |
3 | – | – | 73% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Ligue 1
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris SG |
20 | >99% | >99% | – |
| 2 |  Paris FC |
17 | – | 48% | – |
| 3 |  Monaco |
15 | – | 44% | – |
| 4 |  Lyon |
17 | – | 36% | – |
| 5 |  Lille |
18 | – | 22% | – |
| 6 |  Rennes |
16 | – | 20% | – |
| 7 |  Marseille |
15 | – | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Brest |
12 | – | 7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
10 | – | 4% | <1% |
| 10 |  Toulouse |
10 | – | 3% | <1% |
| 11 |  Nice |
14 | – | 2% | 1% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
12 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 13 |  Lens |
13 | – | <1% | 3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
10 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Troyes |
8 | – | – | 34% |
| 16 |  Le Havre |
2 | – | – | 39% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
7 | – | – | 43% |
| 18 |  Angers |
8 | – | – | 62% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Eredivisie
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Twente |
23 | 41% | 67% | – |
| 2 |  Ajax |
24 | 30% | 58% | – |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven |
23 | 17% | 39% | – |
| 4 |  Feyenoord |
25 | 10% | 27% | – |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar |
20 | 2% | 8% | – |
| 6 |  Heerenveen |
18 | – | <1% | – |
| 7 |  For Sittard |
19 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Groningen |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 9 |  Cambuur |
15 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Nijmegen |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
14 | – | – | 4% |
| 12 |  Utrecht |
12 | – | – | 5% |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
12 | – | – | 8% |
| 14 |  Telstar |
9 | – | – | 12% |
| 15 |  Den Haag |
6 | – | – | 18% |
| 16 |  Zwolle |
11 | – | – | 20% |
| 17 |  Excelsior |
11 | – | – | 32% |
| 18 |  Willem II |
2 | – | – | >99% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
30 | 49% | 91% | – |
| 2 |  Benfica |
25 | 47% | 90% | – |
| 3 |  Sp Lisbon |
21 | 4% | 17% | – |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
21 | – | <1% | – |
| 5 |  Arouca |
20 | – | <1% | – |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
20 | – | – | – |
| 7 |  Sp Braga |
14 | – | – | – |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente |
15 | – | – | – |
| 9 |  Alverca |
11 | – | – | <1% |
| 10 |  Famalicao |
10 | – | – | – |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
14 | – | – | <1% |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | – | – | 3% |
| 13 |  Maritimo |
8 | – | – | 15% |
| 14 |  Nacional |
7 | – | – | 18% |
| 15 |  Rio Ave |
7 | – | – | 25% |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
7 | – | – | 29% |
| 17 |  Estoril |
2 | – | – | 31% |
| 18 |  Vitoria |
9 | – | – | 79% |
Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.
| # | Team | League | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford |
League One | |
| 2 | Stockport |
League One | |
| 3 | Luton |
League One | |
| 4 | Huddersfield |
League One | |
| 5 | Leicester |
League One | |
| 6 | Plymouth |
League One | |
| 7 | Reading |
League One | |
| 8 | Mansfield |
League One | |
| 9 | Stevenage |
League One | |
| 10 | Bradford |
League One | |
| 11 | Wycombe |
League One | |
| 12 | Sheffield Weds |
League One | |
| 13 | Leyton Orient |
League One | |
| 14 | Blackpool |
League One | |
| 15 | Cambridge |
League One | |
| 16 | Burton |
League One | |
| 17 | Milton Keynes Dons |
League One | |
| 18 | Barnsley |
League One | |
| 19 | Notts County |
League One | |
| 20 | Doncaster |
League One | |
| 21 | Wigan |
League One | |
| 22 | Peterboro |
League One | |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon |
League One | |
| 24 | Bromley |
League One |
Who wins
| Called right | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 1.0211 | 0.612 |
| Elo model | 49% | 1.0233 | 0.6135 |
| Bookmakers, early odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.9976 | 0.5961 |
| Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches) | 51% | 0.999 | 0.5971 |
When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.
Goals markets
| Market | Goals model | Naive guess | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.676 |
| Both teams score | 0.686 | 0.691 | — |
| Half-time result | 1.053 | 1.081 | — |
| First-half goal | 0.601 | 0.605 | — |
| Half-time / full-time | 1.907 | 1.962 | — |
"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.
Compare any two teams
Prediction, goals markets, form, rating trend and past meetings.