Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

Championship 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-07

Bristol City

Norwich 37% 2.73 26% 3.80 37% 2.70 54%xG 2.8 58%1.73 11-07

Portsmouth

Stoke 48% 2.07 27% 3.71 25% 4.05 47%xG 2.5 51%1.97 11-07

Wrexham

Wolves 37% 2.73 27% 3.67 36% 2.77 50%xG 2.7 55%1.82 11-07

Birmingham

Swansea 51% 1.95 25% 3.93 23% 4.32 51%xG 2.7 53%1.88 11-07

Blackburn

West Ham 22% 4.47 24% 4.09 53% 1.88 54%xG 2.9 55%1.81 11-07

Cardiff

Burnley 50% 2.00 24% 4.21 26% 3.79 61%xG 3.2 62%1.62 11-07

Charlton

Sheffield United 29% 3.43 27% 3.70 44% 2.28 49%xG 2.6 54%1.86 11-07

Preston

Southampton 17% 5.95 21% 4.69 62% 1.62 60%xG 3.1 56%1.79 11-07

QPR

Lincoln 60% 1.67 22% 4.46 18% 5.63 57%xG 3.0 54%1.84 11-07

Watford

Middlesbrough 20% 5.12 23% 4.44 58% 1.73 59%xG 3.0 57%1.75 11-07

West Brom

Millwall 45% 2.22 28% 3.61 27% 3.68 46%xG 2.5 50%1.98 11-21

Millwall

QPR 46% 2.19 26% 3.83 28% 3.54 52%xG 2.8 56%1.79 11-21

Norwich

Cardiff 56% 1.77 22% 4.57 22% 4.63 64%xG 3.3 62%1.60 11-21

Southampton

Derby 75% 1.34 16% 6.29 10% 10.47 67%xG 3.4 53%1.88 11-21

Bolton

Portsmouth 35% 2.84 27% 3.75 38% 2.63 52%xG 2.8 57%1.76 11-21

Lincoln

Wrexham 35% 2.90 27% 3.70 38% 2.60 51%xG 2.7 55%1.80 11-21

Middlesbrough

Bristol City 65% 1.54 20% 4.91 15% 6.84 60%xG 3.1 54%1.85 11-21

Sheffield United

Watford 56% 1.77 23% 4.26 20% 4.98 56%xG 2.9 55%1.81 11-21

Stoke

Birmingham 30% 3.31 28% 3.64 42% 2.36 48%xG 2.6 53%1.90 11-21

Swansea

West Brom 45% 2.24 28% 3.61 28% 3.61 46%xG 2.5 51%1.97 11-21

West Ham

Preston 83% 1.21 12% 8.56 6% 17.99 72%xG 3.7 48%2.06 11-21

Wolves

Charlton 67% 1.49 21% 4.88 13% 7.99 54%xG 2.9 48%2.09 11-22

Burnley

Blackburn 45% 2.22 27% 3.72 28% 3.57 49%xG 2.6 53%1.87 11-24

Bristol City

Wrexham 44% 2.28 27% 3.72 29% 3.43 50%xG 2.7 54%1.85 11-24

Cardiff

Preston 65% 1.54 20% 5.00 15% 6.58 62%xG 3.2 57%1.77 11-24

Charlton

Lincoln 40% 2.53 28% 3.61 33% 3.05 48%xG 2.6 53%1.89 11-24

Middlesbrough

Swansea 58% 1.74 23% 4.38 20% 5.11 58%xG 3.0 56%1.78 11-24

Norwich

QPR 51% 1.98 24% 4.13 25% 3.96 58%xG 3.0 59%1.69 11-24

Portsmouth

West Ham 29% 3.44 26% 3.89 45% 2.21 54%xG 2.9 58%1.74 11-24

Sheffield United

Southampton 33% 3.05 25% 3.95 42% 2.39 58%xG 3.0 61%1.65 11-24

Wolves

Derby 67% 1.48 20% 5.07 13% 7.82 58%xG 3.0 51%1.96 11-25

Bolton

West Brom 33% 3.06 27% 3.69 40% 2.49 50%xG 2.7 55%1.83 11-25

Burnley

Birmingham 28% 3.54 26% 3.84 46% 2.19 53%xG 2.8 56%1.78 11-25

Watford

Blackburn 39% 2.57 28% 3.59 33% 3.00 47%xG 2.6 53%1.90 11-25

Stoke

Millwall 39% 2.59 28% 3.59 34% 2.98 47%xG 2.6 53%1.90 11-27

Southampton

Middlesbrough 42% 2.41 25% 4.05 34% 2.96 60%xG 3.1 63%1.59 11-28

Blackburn

Charlton 54% 1.86 26% 3.83 20% 4.93 46%xG 2.5 48%2.09 11-28

Lincoln

Wolves 27% 3.67 26% 3.82 47% 2.15 51%xG 2.7 55%1.82 11-28

Preston

Norwich 21% 4.78 23% 4.26 56% 1.80 57%xG 3.0 56%1.77 11-28

Birmingham

Bolton 66% 1.51 20% 5.03 14% 7.17 60%xG 3.1 54%1.86 11-28

Derby

Watford 41% 2.46 27% 3.76 33% 3.05 52%xG 2.8 56%1.77 11-28

Millwall

Burnley 53% 1.87 24% 4.09 22% 4.52 54%xG 2.8 55%1.82 11-28

QPR

Sheffield United 48% 2.07 25% 3.97 27% 3.77 55%xG 2.9 57%1.74 11-28

West Brom

Bristol City 50% 2.00 27% 3.74 23% 4.29 46%xG 2.5 50%2.01 11-28

West Ham

Stoke 67% 1.49 19% 5.14 13% 7.56 61%xG 3.1 53%1.88 11-28

Wrexham

Portsmouth 41% 2.45 28% 3.63 32% 3.17 48%xG 2.6 53%1.88

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	Southampton	Championship	1571	220
2	Middlesbrough	Championship	1546	244
3	West Ham	Championship	1538	239
4	Birmingham	Championship	1524	244
5	Swansea	Championship	1498	244
6	Millwall	Championship	1496	244
7	Norwich	Championship	1495	236
8	West Brom	Championship	1489	244
9	Wolves	Championship	1485	204
10	Sheffield United	Championship	1483	236
11	Portsmouth	Championship	1476	244
12	Wrexham	Championship	1475	242
13	QPR	Championship	1464	244
14	Stoke	Championship	1457	244
15	Bristol City	Championship	1448	244
16	Blackburn	Championship	1445	244
17	Lincoln	Championship	1439	244
18	Burnley	Championship	1434	220
19	Cardiff	Championship	1434	244
20	Derby	Championship	1406	244
21	Bolton	Championship	1394	244
22	Watford	Championship	1389	236
23	Charlton	Championship	1385	244
24	Preston	Championship	1362	244

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

Championship 2026-11-27

Southampton Rated 1571

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 1.65 – 1.47

Middlesbrough Rated 1546

Southampton Model pick 42% Fair odds 2.41

Draw 25% Fair odds 4.05

Middlesbrough 34% Fair odds 2.97

Add to slip: Southampton Draw Middlesbrough

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Southampton	Draw	Middlesbrough
Goals model	42%	25%	34%
Elo model	49%	27%	24%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Favours Southampton

+7 pts

Southampton are rated 25 points above Middlesbrough (1571 to 1546), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
Home advantage Favours Southampton

+18 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Southampton's chance of winning and takes the same from Middlesbrough's.
Attack against defence Favours Southampton

Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Southampton score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Championship); Middlesbrough concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
Last 5 matches Neutral

Southampton DWWDW, gained 17 rating points; Middlesbrough LWWDW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Past meetings Favours Middlesbrough

Southampton won 0, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

SouthamptonMiddlesbrough

2025-11-081400–15712026-11-04

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%20.33

Over 1.582%1.21

Under 1.518%5.69

Over 2.560%1.65

Under 2.540%2.53

Over 3.538%2.62

Under 3.562%1.62

Over 4.521%4.85

Under 4.579%1.26

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes63%1.59

Both score: no37%2.69

Southampton clean sheet23%4.36

Middlesbrough clean sheet19%5.23

Most likely scores

correct score

1-1 11%8.91
2-1 9%11.31
1-2 8%12.71
1-0 7%14.86
2-2 6%15.38
2-0 6%16.67
0-1 6%16.86
0-0 5%20.33

Every score

Southampton goals ↓ Middlesbrough goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	6	5	2	1
1	7	11	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	5	4	2	1
4	1	2	1	1
5		1

Half-time result

xG 0.70 – 0.65

Southampton ahead 31% Fair odds 3.19

Level 40% Fair odds 2.49

Middlesbrough ahead 28% Fair odds 3.52

First-half goals

Over 0.574%1.36

Under 0.526%3.79

Over 1.540%2.51

Under 1.560%1.66

Over 2.516%6.42

Under 2.584%1.18

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Southampton	Draw	Middlesbrough
Southampton	24%4.16	5%20.04	2%43.48
Level	15%6.69	13%7.51	12%8.35
Middlesbrough	3%32.68	5%18.32	20%5.02

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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